KSL-90-25 + redirect page
Integrating Artificial Intelligence and Decision Theory to Forecast New Products + Has identifier
Integrating Artificial Intelligence and Decision Theory to Forecast New Products + Ksl tr id
Integrating Artificial Intelligence and Decision Theory to Forecast New Products + Number
| Integrating Artificial Intelligence and Decision Theory to Forecast New Products |
Bibtype
techreport
Has publishing details
1990
Has title
Integrating Artificial Intelligence and Decision Theory to Forecast New Products
Has where published
KSL-90-25
Has year
1990
Title
Integrating Artificial Intelligence and Decision Theory to Forecast New Products
Year
1990
Abstract
Established forecasting techniques general … Established forecasting techniques generally are unsuitable for forecasting sales of new products, because most such techniques require the availability of directly pertinent historical data (e.g., previous sales of the product) to produce a forecast. In this paper, we present FORECASTER, a methodology and a supporting computer program that forecasts sales of new products by predicting the purchasing behaviour of individual customers. FORECASTER employs a novel integration of production rules and decision-theoretic models to provide a customer-specific forecast for all the products in a particular market simultaneously. Although motivated by the requirements of forecasting sales of new products, FORECASTER also can be employed in the context of forecasting sales of mature products to confirm forecasts produced by established techniques, and to increase the resolution of such forecasts. Our methodology suggests the feasibility of managing large collections of loose assumptions in forecasting new products, and, more generally, that systhesis of techniques from artificial intelligence and from decision theory potentially provides a basis for increasing the capabilities of current forecasting tools. capabilities of current forecasting tools.
Address
Milano, Italy +
Author
David A. Klein and Edward H. Shortliffe +
Has author
David A. Klein and Edward H. Shortliffe +
Has identifier
Integrating Artificial Intelligence and Decision Theory to Forecast New Products +
Institution
Knowledge Systems, AI Laboratory +
Ksl tr id
Integrating Artificial Intelligence and Decision Theory to Forecast New Products +
Number
Integrating Artificial Intelligence and Decision Theory to Forecast New Products +
Process note
YES +
Categories KSL Technical Report +, Publication +, Technical Report +
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