A diagnostic method that uses casual knowledge and linear programming in the application of bayes' formula
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abstract: Bayes' formula has been applied extensively in computer-based medical diagnostic systems. One assumption that is often made in the application of the formula is that the findings in a case are conditionally independent. This assumption is often invalid and leads to inaccurate posterior probability assignments to the diagnostic hypotheses. This paper discusses a method for using casual knowledge to structure findings according to their probabilistic dependencies. An inference procedure is discussed which propagates probabilities within a network of casually related findings in order to calculate posterior probabilities of diagnostic hypotheses. A linear programming technique is described that bounds the values of the propagated probabilities subject to known probabilistic constraints.
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| Abstract | Bayes' formula has been applied extensivel … Bayes' formula has been applied extensively in computer-based medical diagnostic systems. One assumption that is often made in the application of the formula is that the findings in a case are conditionally independent. This assumption is often invalid and leads to inaccurate posterior probability assignments to the diagnostic hypotheses. This paper discusses a method for using casual knowledge to structure findings according to their probabilistic dependencies. An inference procedure is discussed which propagates probabilities within a network of casually related findings in order to calculate posterior probabilities of diagnostic hypotheses. A linear programming technique is described that bounds the values of the propagated probabilities subject to known probabilistic constraints. ubject to known probabilistic constraints. |
| Author | Gregory F. Cooper + |
| Bibtype | techreport + |
| Institution | Knowledge Systems, AI Laboratory + |
| Key | KSL-86-09 + |
| Note | Journal Memo. + |
| Number | KSL-86-09 + |
| Tag | Computer science + |
| Title | A Diagnostic Method That Uses Casual Knowledge and Linear Programming in the Application of Bayes' Formula + |
| Tr id | KSL-86-09 + |
| Year | 1986 + |
